Continuing to research modeling of the epidemiological situation related to COVID-19 in Ukraine and all over the world

15 June 2020
The Department of Economic Cybernetics and Information Technologies of the Institute of Business, Economics, and Information Technologies of Odesa National Polytechnic University simulates scenarios for the spread of coronavirus disease in Ukraine and all over the world.

One of the scientific directions of the Department of Economic Cybernetics and Information Technologies of Odesa National Polytechnic University is simulation modelling of complex economic processes and systems. However, the current situation in Ukraine and all over the world, connected to the infectious disease pandemic COVID-19 caused by the coronavirus SARS-CoV-2, influenced the decision of the department to consider this problem. 

The Ministry of Healthcare of Ukraine is solving difficult tasks, which are caused by the lack of reliable, scientifically validated information on the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic and the treatment of infected people. This leads to forced decision-making in conditions of high entropy and therefore increases the value of forecast information for different time perspectives. 

The possibilities of simulation regarding solving problems arising in uncertain environments led to the choice of mathematical research apparatus. It has been attempted to create the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic models in Ukraine and other countries using different simulation paradigms.

The main focuses of the simulation experiments are to predict the rate of epidemic spread and to reach the peak incidence in the studied countries and to determine the degree and "critical threshold" of loading the main resources of assistance to the population. The simulator nature of simulation models allows reproducing the dynamics of stochastic processes (disturbing effects) inherent in the spread of the infectious and to perform parametric tuning of the experiments. This is significant in the case of non-stationary and heterogeneous research processes and in case of having a significant amount of feedback. It is proved that deterministic models give an incorrect forecast under these conditions. The study is based on the open data of Internet resources, the reliability of which affects the accuracy of the obtained forecast dynamics.

Further deepening of experimental work will involve the wide involvement of infectious disease specialists in order to take into account the process of forecasting the results of medical research and operational monitoring of the epidemic situation.